When it comes to mortgage loans and interest rates, it’s never a good idea to gamble. That’s why I typically advise my clients to lock in an interest rate at the earliest opportunity. This is just one step of the standardized system we have put in place to ensure the best possible loan experience for each borrower that we work with.

A mortgage loan cannot be closed without a locked-in rate, and there are three main elements to take into consideration:

Interest Rate
Points or fees
Length of the lock

Locking in a rate does not obligate the borrower to commit to the loan until the loan is actually closed. The lock is merely a security measure designed to eliminate the risk of market volatility throughout the duration of the purchase or refinance transaction. As long as the loan is approved and funded before the end of the lock period, the borrower will receive the interest rate quoted.

When a lender permits an extended lock-in period, the borrower will likely face a higher interest rate or additional fees that could be quoted as points. In other words, the borrower pays for the lender to take on the extended risk of being exposed to potential changes in the market.

For example, let’s say a 30-day rate lock commitment costs the borrower one-half point, while a 60-day rate lock commitment costs one full point. If the borrower in this scenario needed the extended lock period, but did not want to pay points, then an alternative would be to accept a slightly higher interest rate. In this case, a 60-day lock would typically have a higher interest rate than a 30-day lock.

Our standard procedure is to lock in a rate as quickly as possible. My team and I want our clients to know that while interest rates fluctuate daily, most lenders do not want to lose any business because of it. If a significant rally causes interest rates to drop 0.25% or more, we know that we can most likely renegotiate the rate. In many cases, lenders prefer this option over losing the loan to another lender. On the other hand, if we’d allowed our clients to sit on the fence and not lock in their rate, we would have exposed them to market volatility without a safety net. Then, if rates were to increase, the borrower might no longer qualify for the loan they want – a situation that we want to avoid at all costs.

By knowing our clients’ needs and working intimately with them to make the right decisions early on, my team and I are proud to say that we have helped them to achieve their home ownership dreams.

This morning brought us the release of three relevant economic reports. The results were mixed amongst them, but the more important ones showed stronger than expected results. The first was the least important and gave us favorable news. This was May’s Housing starts that revealed a 10% decline in starts of new homes last month. That was a much larger drop than expected and the pushed starts to their lowest level in five months, indicating that the housing sector may be weakening once the tax credits exp ire. This is basically godo news for the bond market because a weak housing sector makes a broader economic recovery more difficult.

The second was May’s Producer Price Index (PPI) that measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Today’s release showed a 0.3% decline in the overall index and a 0.2% increase in the more important core reading. These readings hint that inflationary pressures were a little stronger than many had thought, which is negative for bonds and mortgage rates. This is because inflation at the producer level of the economy will likely carry into the consumer level, making long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. The result is binds prices falling and mortgage rates rising.

The third report was May’s Industrial Production. It showed a 1.2% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities when forecasts were calling for a 0.8% increase. This means that manufa cturing activity was stronger than thought and is another negative for bonds.

There are two reports scheduled for release tomorrow, but one of them is the week’s most important and arguably the single most important report we see each month. That is May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is very similar to today’s PPI, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.1% drop in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. A larger than expected increase in the core reading would most likely lead to a noticeable upward change to mortgage rates tomorrow.

May’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. Good news for mortgage rates would a decline in this index, but the CPI is much mor e important to the markets than this index. Therefore, if the CPI reveals any surprises, this data will likely have little impact on Thursday’s mortgage rates. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said late this morning that their manufacturing index rose last month to a reading of 59.7. This was slightly higher than revised forecasts, meaning manufacturer sentiment was a little stronger than thought. That is negative news for bonds, but it was not enough of a variance to heavily influence trading or mortgage rates this morning.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates. I f the major stock indexes remain calm, mortgage rates should follow suit.

Overall, will likely to be the most important day of the week for mortgage rates with May’s Employment report being posted. The rest of the week’s data could also lead to noticeable changes in mortgage rates and we also need to watch for stock market volatility. I suspect this will be a fairly active week for rates, but most of the changes will probably come the latter part of the week.

The weekly average for the benchmark 30-year Conforming mortgage landed at 4.93%, low enough to entice many homeowners to again consider refinancing. I locked a client in on a 3.125% 5/1 ARM this week, which hasn’t been available for over nine months.

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As we’ve noted in recent weeks, slow growth coupled with little inflation and a global flight-to-safety all accrue benefit to American mortgage seekers. As such, those contemplating refinances should take advantage. It is somewhat of a shame that the dip in rates didn’t actually occur during the last weeks of the homebuyer tax credits, since it might have goosed activity even further.

This Week; Treasury borrowing but the economic data will provide economists a lot of ammo to think about. Monday has Mar personal income and spending and the April ISM manufacturing report. There key data points each day this week, but the big one markets will be setting up for comes on Friday with the March employment report. The early estimates are for non-farm payrolls to have increased about 200K with the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7%. With the Greek loan worked out over the weekend, the stock market should have a decent day on Monday and the bond and mortgage markets should start weaker as safe haven trades are unwound. Interest rate markets will likely continue in their respective narrow and directionless pattern with not much change by the end of the week. We do expect some increased volatility early this week based on economic releases and continuing news coming from the EU over the debt problems in Europe; Spain, Portugal and Ireland and Greece are still unresolved in the longer run. The Goldman-Sachs civil suit and now a possible criminal charge will also get attention from investors and traders this week.

It’s another quiet day in the markets, particularly in bonds. There is no relevant economic data being posted today. The stock markets are being driven mostly by earnings results. But those reports do not directly affect the bond market or mortgage rates. What usually happens is that the earnings news has a significant influence on the stock markets and the bond market tends to move against stocks. So, if earnings news is good stocks usually rise and bonds become less appealing to investors. However, disappointing earnings leads to stock selling and funds shifting into bonds. The problem is th at we have not seen the earnings reports lead to a significant move in the major stock indexes. This leaves the bond market with little to drive trading until we get to this week’s economic data.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of March’s Producer Price Index (PPI). It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, a slight increase, or better yet a decline in prices, would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1 % rise in the core data.

Late tomorrow morning, the National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March’s New Home Sales will be released Friday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts’ forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates. Both are expected to show increases from February’s levels.

Also being released tomorrow are the weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to show 450,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, down considerably from the previous week. Generally speaking, a higher than expected number of claims would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates. But, this data usually has to bring us a significant surprise to affect mortgage rates. The PPI report is by far the most important of the day and will likely set the tone for bonds and mortgage pricing tomorrow.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today or tomorrow. This likely leaves the bond market, and therefore mortgage rates, to the mercy of the stock markets. If the stock indexes rally again like they did late yesterday, we may see bonds fall and another afternoon increase in mortgage rates. But if they remain near current levels, mortgage rates should follow suit.

There are a couple of key names posting quarterly earnings after the markets cl ose today, including Apple. If they beat analysts’ forecasts, we will probably see stock rise tomorrow and bonds fall. If the corporate earnings fall short of expectations and the stock markets post losses tomorrow, bonds should benefit as investors seek safe-haven from the volatility. That would be good news for mortgage shoppers since it should lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

Thursday morning brings us the release of March’s Producer Price Index (PPI). It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, a slight increase, or better yet a decline in prices, would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors will post March’s Existing Homes Sales numbers. A similar report to this one and actually the week’s least important data- March’s New Home Sales will be released Friday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts’ forecasts, I don’t think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates. Both are expected to show increases from February’s levels.

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It appears that the stock markets may fall further, which should help boost bond prices throughout the day. I would not be surprised to see the major stock indexes move lower than current levels sometime today. If this is accurate, the bond market should benefit as investors seek safety from the volatility and I would not be surprised to see mortgage rates revise lower sometime this afternoon.

March’s Housing Starts was posted early this morning, showing that new construction starts rose 1.6% last month. This was a larger increase than was expected, giving us a sign of housing sector strength. However, this data is not considered to be highly important to the markets or mortgage rates and has not influenced this morning’s rates.

The second report of the day came from the University of Michigan who announced that their Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 69.5 this month. This was well below forecasts of a 75.0 reading, meaning that consumers felt much worse about their own financial situations than many had thought. That usually translates into consumers delaying making a large purchase and helps limit economic growth. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Next week is moderately busy in terms of relevant economic data being released. There are a couple of important reports scheduled, including a very important inflation index. Unlike most Monday’s there is data being posted Monday that may influence mortgage pricing. March’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be released late Monday morning. Look fo r more details on this report and the rest of next week’s events in Sunday’s weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now… This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.